2026: Switzerland’s Year of Choice(s)
The world is full of year-end recaps and summaries.
Most are lightweight and superficial - at best. And almost all of them ignore Switzerland.
While the world considers the potential horrors of a World War III, the lasting effects of a global trade dust-up and the prospect of a US - China military showdown, the fate of a small, alpine republic dedicated to the concept of neutrality and quality goes willingly unnoticed.
Except here - in Switzerland - where it matters.
The year 2025 may go down in the annals as a pivotal moment in history.
A new (old) president in the United States of America turned global order on its head. He tore up the playbook, revamped economic policy and fundamentally reshaped the world’s largest superpower.
Should this matter to Switzerland?
On the surface, no.
The policies of an American president more than 6’000 kilometres away from Bern hold little meaning to a people whose nation existed more than 600 years before the Declaration of Independence.
And yet - much like the pull of the moon on the tides of the Atlantic, that man’s whims and wishes move the currents of global affairs.
Which means that Switzerland must be ready.
And that means making some critical choices.
From shyness to slyness
For decades, Switzerland has played the underdog.
Small and backward, at least compared to France, Germany and Italy, its much larger cousins by language, the tiny nation of farmers, watchmakers and reticent bankers made much out of its weakness.
Just as Sun-Tzu so wisely advised, the Swiss “appeared weak” while they grew in strength.
Under the radar, Switzerland did what it did best, while avoid the greater ebbs and flows of global affairs.
But the days when that demure, model child could play quietly at the edge of the spotlight have slowly passed in to memory.
After a very public spat over trade and with a mounting battle over EU relations on the horizon, Switzerland finds itself on centre stage - like it or not.
This raises the obvious question of what Switzerland means to make of this moment.
And how it should approach the crossroads that it now faces in 2026.
One approach points towards raw pragmatism, the kind that was on display in the Oval Office when Johann Rupert, Jean-Frédéric Dufour, Diego Aponte and Alfred Gantner paid homage to Donald Trump in an effort to close a tariff agreement.
That approach has its merits.
But cutting deals and winning “battles” is a tactical game at its best.
And it isn’t always the wisest choice.
The bigger picture
To look beyond the horizon and make decisions in the light of a century’s verdict requires thinking that is more strategic - and values-based.
No society so diverse, so multi-cultural and so international may long survive in a changing world without a true sense of itself. To know who you are means to know what you believe in, what you stand for, what makes you special - and yes, ultimately what you are willing to fight for.
For sure, the term “values-based” has a ring of the academic.
To some it may sound like fluff. But when considered in the light of “what you would die for” the idea of values becomes more than real.
One of Europe’s rising superstars, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, in his foreign diplomatic trips, has made a point of addressing university students.
His explanation of geopolitics is both simple and clear. Countries act on the basis of three main drivers: power, interests and values.
As the head of state of a small country very clearly exposed to a large aggressive neighbour, Stubb points out that Finland has very little raw power. It must, therefore, make its decisions based on interests and values.
The first may lead Finland to do a deal for icebreakers with the United States, and forge closer military ties with Nordic and Baltic countries, while the second compels the country to rally together with liberal democracies and market-based economies.
Beyond power politics
Switzerland finds itself in a similar position.
If 2025 exposed any truth so brutally clear it was this: this country possesses no hard power.
Few people have ever pretended otherwise.
And yet, a lack of power is only a weakness when a country is confronted. If even the smallest of nations has made itself stronger through relationships and alliances based on strong interests and enduring values, then it may wield a power beyond its normal status.
This is the greatest geopolitical lesson for European countries - besides the importance of communication - in the year 2025.
The larger question that looms in the air for 2026 is how to ensure that this power, this quiet, but effective strength, endures.
And what choices - for there will be many - should be made in order to solidify and preserve that power?
The formula for answering that question is not to be found in any textbook or any handbook. Indeed, it can never be fully and completely defined for a given point in time; such is the nature of changing priorities and changing needs.
But some short review of Switzerland’s interests and values may provide more clarity.
Values and interests
Neutrality and political stability have been hallmarks of the Swiss political and economic system for nearly two centuries. Open access to global markets combined with the independence to set key economic policies and protect key domestic industries lie very much in the country’s interests.
Combined with a historical faith in capitalism and healthy market competition, as witnessed by strong federalized government, Switzerland has held true to a general if passive and understated policy that has helped maintained steady growth for decades.
So far so good.
As long as most of the world was aligned on globalization and free trade, Switzerland had a great deal in common with its friends and neighbours.
The choice(s)
As 2026 rolls around, however, that fact can clearly no longer be taken for granted.
Against this backdrop, Switzerland soon goes to the polls. The questions being put to the nation are directly connected to the country’s interests and values, whether voters realize it or not.
A referendum to limit the population of Switzerland to 10 million
A vote on enshrining permanent, armed neutrality in the Swiss constitution
A call for the right to cash to also be written into the constitution
A monumental vote on the newly-negotiated bilateral agreement with the EU
In each case, there is a choice between strategic vision and tactical outcomes.
Nothing new in the annals of human history…
To reduce the strain on public infrastructure and living space, a cap on population seems to make sense. Viewed under the lens of a rapidly ageing society and an economy that requires skilled labor, Switzerland’s long-term interests would council differently.
People equal progress, plain and simple.
Fixing its position as a neutral country in “tables of stone” - a move that seemingly only confirms what is already common practice - makes perfect sense. If such a vote limits the country’s ability to change its mind, based on changing circumstances or pressing needs (like a Swiss armaments industry that cannot function because of export controls), then long-term interests may suffer.
The old adage comes to mind: Never say never.
Flexibility über alles
If there is one overwhelming value that Switzerland holds expressly dear it is the ability to choose, the right of the people to weigh up the arguments, honed through democratic debate, and cast their individual vote.
The flexibility to constantly align and re-align itself based on enduring values and dearly-held interests is ultimately what will give Switzerland the ability to be as powerful as it ever wants to be - in 2026 and beyond.