7 Lessons in Power for European Leaders
European High Representative for Foreign Affairs Kaja Kallas is well-known for sharing her current reading list on social media.
Last year, it included an interesting choice: Henry Kissinger’s “A World Restored”.
The scholarly tome from the now-deceased legend of diplomacy covers the critical work of Metternich and Castlereigh, from Austria and Great Britain respectively, who faced down both Napoleon and Alexander II to restore peace and balance in a Europe ravaged by war and revolution.
Certainly a fitting study for a diplomat trying to stand up to Russia with a recalcitrant American in the background.
But rather than draw wisdom from one period of history, Kallas should be reading another book.
(For all we know, perhaps she has…)
That would be Robert Greene’s cult work “The 48 Laws of Power.”
Because in these uncertain times, Europe does not need to rediscover the finer details of diplomatic finesse, so much as it needs to firmly grasp the tools of power at its disposal.
And for the record, that is exactly what Metternich did himself.
Kaja Kallas - former Estonian prime minister and current European High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy
Playing defense - for now
The current geopolitical situation, with a weakened transatlantic relationship and years of neglected defense spending, leaves Europe assuming a defensive posture - at the moment.
That does not mean, it is without options, even while it works to build up its military and economic strength.
And Robert Greene knew this.
His Law 18 says: Do not build fortresses to protect yourself. Isolation is dangerous.
In other words, Europe may be forced to play “defense” for the moment - but it cannot adopt a wholly defensive mentality.
One of the best examples of this comes directly from the darkest eras of European history.
In the violent years leading up to World War II, the French Republic took ill-advised comfort from the fact that it had not only the largest army in Europe, but also the most sophisticated line of defences known to man: the Maginot Line.
Dug in behind this mass of concrete, the French felt secure and safe, to the point of self-delusion. Ultimately, the vaunted line was no match for the mobility of Hitler’s tanks.
Today it is clear: Building fortresses can lead to dangerously narrow thinking.
A cautionary tale - relics of the Maginot Line in France
Europe might be tempted to pull up the proverbial drawbridge, cut itself off from all engagements and turn its territory into a splendidly isolated fortress. It might be enticed into thinking that it must defend its social state model at all costs.
Some measure of defense is certainly required; a drone wall, for instance, is obviously needed to counter the hybrid tactics of the Kremlin. Cutting off benefits all at once is never desirable.
But trusting completely in static defence is not good. Not only does it tend to instill laziness and a false sense of security, it reduces the possibility that a power like Europe can exert influence beyond its own borders.
And in the changing world of geopolitics, influence is everything.
Beyond well-worn paths
Greene wrote his classic before the rise of Donald Trump. But he understood his power very well - including his penchant for keeping his opponents off-balance.
This is:
Law 17: Keep others in suspended terror: Cultivate an air of unpredictability
In other words:
Do not follow patterns of action. Being unpredictable can be a strength.
Much may be made of the rule of law and the advantages that come from being a stable, democratic society.
That is indisputable.
But falling into a rut where a static set of rules not only limit the field of action - but, more importantly, create predictable patterns of behaviour - can be fatal.
Enemies like to find patterns and then exploit them.
Europe must build a balance between fostering calm at home and wonder (or even fear) abroad by its unpredictability.
Pragmatism is, after all, one of the highest forms of intelligence.
Being unpredictable and pragmatic also has another advantage: it can silence critics at home.
When Ursual van der Leyen and other European Commission officials refuse to take any risk and repeat the same well-worn phrases over and over again, they become easy targets for European populists.
Being more flexible will build respect.
Act your age
Speaking of respect, there are few places in the world more renowned for pomp and circumstance than the Old Continent.
And that applies to more countries than just merry ole England.
With kings or queens (or dukes) in Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Spain, Holland as well as Luxembourg and Liechtenstein - Europe knows a thing or two about being royal.
But - as Greene makes clear - “pretty is as pretty does.”
Law 34: Be royal in your own fashion: Act like a king to be treated like one
The essence of projecting power - whether in royal fashion or not - stems from a sense of self-worth and self-respect.
In Greene’s analysis, one of the negative examples of Law 34 was Louis Philippe, one of the last kings of France. In an effort (probably) to protect his head, the king removed the trappings of royalty, dressed like a businessman and attempted to blend in with the bourgeoisie.
In doing so, he lost the respect of his people - and ultimately his throne too.
No one is advocating that Europe elect a king to rule over it. But at the same time, the impression of a European Union run by grey bureaucrats in Brussels, symbolized by the likes of Herman von Rumpouy and Jean-Claude Juncker, does not inspire awe and respect at home or abroad.
Ostentatious displays of power will not fly in an empire of 27 nation states. That is for sure.
Pomp and circumstance - European-style…
But Europe cannot expect to shed the image of a cesspool for mid-level, technocratic managers if it turns its back on the “elan” that comes with men and women of talent in positions of power.
Like it or not, ambition is always a source of power.
To wield it, Europe must both celebrate the glories of its individual members and raise up people of personality - not dictators or kings per se, but figures that can command respect.
That will catch the attention of both citizens and counterparties.
Playing hard to get
Power, of course, is not (usually) given to those who demand it.
Tywin Lannister’s famous riposte to boy-king Geoffrey in Game of Thrones comes to mind: “Any man who must say ‘I am the king’ is no true king.”
Likewise Europe will gain respect and power not only by conducting itself with strong self-assurance - but also by not “tooting its own horn.”
After all, aloofness is the privilege of kings.
That aligns with two of Greene’s maxims:
Law 3: Conceal your intentions
Law 20: Do not commit to anyone
Clear and effective communications have their place. In the recent months and years, strong coordination among European national governments across social media made it possible to see exactly what Europe was aiming for. Ukrainians and others were the beneficieries of this transparency.
But there is a time and place to show your cards - and there are situations where it is better to hide them very carefully.
The latter approach can give rise to confusion, of course, but it can also help build power. When opponents are guessing they are usually off balance.
If a country, an army or a leader find itself in a weaker position, then “keeping quiet” can be a strategic way to project strength - even when lacking it.
Every time someone on the outside has to ask “what are they doing” or “what do they want”, they acknowledge that the object of their question has a certain element of power.
When, after periods of long silence, a mission is completed and publicized, the shock effect is even greater.
In this sense, Europe should learn to “keep its mouth shut.”
When it comes to commitments, Europe can position itself for the future by reserving “the right of kings” to remain aloof.
As Finland’s president Alexander Stubb - a master communicator and media-savvy European champion - has repeatedly pointed out: the world is moving towards multi-polarity
The paradigms of West vs East, democracy vs authoritarianism, capitalism vs socialism are now being remixed. Alliances will be rethought and objectives must be re-aligned.
In a multi-polar world, one of the best things Europe can do is keep its options open. India is taking a similar path - much to the chagrin of the West - but not without reason.
It is also a strategy that Metternich would have approved of…
One European leader who “gets it” - Finland’s cosmopolitan, yet pragmatic president Alexander Stubb
Vision, vision, vision
All the tactical twisting and power positioning would be nothing without vision, however.
A Europe that is reactionary, however, smart and strong it may be will never be the power that it could be.
That is why Law 29 is so important:
Plan all the way to the end
Vision in this sense is not necessarily tied to a sweeping manifesto of a distant world. Such grand declarations often fall flat when faced with reality. And most Europeans are no so ignorant of history that they have forgotten how often the glorious pretentions have fallen flat.
But short-sightedness is fatal.
And failing to look beyond the moment is the death of nations.
So Europe needs vision, combined with pragmatic planning, to grow and maintain its power.
Now, European bureaucrats are infamous for their ability to plan, down to the deepest, deadliest minor detail. But planning to the end should not be a field for quasi-management consultants to run amok with powerpoint slides and bullet lists.
It means first and foremost to put aside short-term (yes, even national…) goals and think long-term. What may be easily achievable today - and even expedient - may not be the right step towards a larger strategic objective.
That involves hard choices, but then again long-term planning always does.
If the world is moving towards a more free-wheeling, multipolar world that includes many more “variables” and more power players, then Europe must “start with the end in mind” and think through the process it will take to get to the desired outcome - one where Europe stands tall.
There will always be room for flexibility along the way. There must be.
But the details matter and they have to be planned for.
Together - for better or worse: European leaders (and not only) at Lancaster House in March 2025
Unity above all
This brings us to the most important element of all.
Unity.
Greene’s Law 42 references the words of Jesus: Strike the shepherd and the sheep will scatter.
And it is true.
Removing the leader, the head, the core of any army or nation or organization will cut its power immediately.
No wonder American sharpshooters targeted British officers riding on horses in the Revolutionary War - they knew how to demoralize an enemy quickly: just kill the people in charge.
That tactic works well even when there are no “single figureheads” to take down. By undercutting the main, overarching principles of an opponent or the most widely recognized symbols - physical or personal - of your enemy, you can easily sow disunity.
Europe knows this very well.
Growing threats to democracy, efforts to erode confidence in the electoral process, seeds of doubt about the value of defending Western values - all these assaults are an attempt to “cut off the head” and bring Europe to its knees.
That must not happen.
Fortunately, Europe is not a one-headed beast.
The mere fact that it has 27 different nations - with 27 talented, charismatic and highly intelligent leaders means that there are a great many “officers to target.”
Beyond that, Europe boasts millions of highly-intelligent, free-thinking and well-educated citizens. The ideals of the West live in each of them - in as much as they wish to acknowledge that fact.
So long as they endure, no external enemy will be able to “scatter the sheep.”
But as the conflicts of the 21st century unfold, Europe would do well to consistently revert to its core, the values and wisdom of centuries gone by.
Power restored - the Congress of Vienna under the leadership of Count von Metternich
Each leader - be it Germany’s chancellor, Finland’s president, Denmark’s prime minister or Europe’s foreign minister - must turn attention again and again (…and again…) to the fundamental elements of democracy, freedom and strength.
Divisions and differences of opinions will arise, no doubt. But they must be balanced with a willingness to preserve unity at any cost - as Europe is doing even now. Through tariff disputes and NATO spending discussions, Europe’s leaders understand, “united we stand, divided we fall.”
Only in this way can victory be achieved - as Metternich and Abraham Lincoln both knew very well.