Martin Pfister is in a Hurry
Legendary basketball coach John Wooden coined the phrase: Be quick, but don’t hurry.
The Wizard of Westwood didn’t know that he was commentator on Swiss politics.
But his well-heeded advice (Wooden’s UCLA teams won more men’s national titles than anyone else) about acting swiftly is especially applicable to the predicament facing Swiss Defence Minister Martin Pfister.
The recently elected man from Zug has been tasked with the gargantuan Aufgabe of re-equipping and re-arming a military that is once again unprepared for a hot war in Europe.
And he needs money to do it.
Money matters
Pfister’s solution, unveiled in recent weeks, is to hike Switzerland’s VAT by less 0.5% over ten years. The time horizon may be long, but the speed at which the Federal Councillor’s new man announced his plan was exceptional.
It might even seem that Pfister employed Wooden’s wisdom for the win.
Because Pfister’s proposal is just exactly that: a quick win.
The fact that the new man on the block has managed to persuade his Federal Council colleagues, four of whom nominally represent the economically liberal side of the spectrum, testifies to the fact that it does seem possible to make a convincing case for unpopular but necessary economic choices.
Pfister the fixer
It also paints Pfister in a decidedly good light.
In one fell swoop, the new defence minister stepped in and stepped, installing new army chief, taking inventory of material gaps and swiftly finding a means to fill the hole.
That this sounds almost too good to be true, judging by the typical length of the Swiss political system, might seem like a footnote except for the fact that when asked, the major political parties, also represented in the government, have come out against the VAT hike.
Is the plan dead upon arrival? Will Swiss soldiers once again be the victims of party politics and wishful thinking as they were during the two world wars?
Maybe.
The first eventuality seems almost certain.
Having been once the major opposition party in Switzerland, harking back to the mid-19th century, the Centre/Christian People’s Party has been constantly squeezed from left and right in the 150 years since. Pfister’s predecessor Viola Amherd received harsh criticism, mostly on the far right, for her seemingly naive negotiations with the Americans over F-35 fighter jets.
After her resignation, the process to replace her revealed a party with little courage and few responsible personalities capable stepping up when duty calls.
Political play?
It is, therefore, not unthinkable that Pfister is being hung out to dry by his Federal Council colleagues. Giving him the nod over his proposal sets him up to look like a pragmatic, go-getter type - at least at first glance.
But Rösti and Parmelin of SVP, as well as Keller-Sutter the Liberals’ finance minister and her party colleague Ignazio Cassis would know full well that even with their support, a referendum would surely be rejected by the public, leaving Pfister looking weak and isolated at the ballot box.
But the situation need not leave Switzerland itself weak and isolated. To ignore the sad state of the armed forces would be the height of political irresponsibility.
Faster, faster
Instead, Pfister and the Federal Council should embrace their schizophrenia. Instead of dragging out a VAT rise over 10 years, a move that will struggle to raise the necessary funds fast enough to purchase complex equipment, the government should go harder and faster. A VAT increase to 10% for only 5 years would do the trick.
This has several advantages.
Firstly and most obviously, it brings the money into the government’s coffers faster. With money in hand - instead of merely projected in the future - Switzerland can make hard and fast deals with its major suppliers, thus helping guarantee that the Swiss military stands at the back of the line in a world already re-arming.
Secondly, a shorter timeframe makes the tax hike more palatable to the public. It is not unlikely that in 5 years time, Pfister will still be at his post and the public will remember the promises made and he and his party will be politically responsible for the outcome.
The current proposal faces opposition not only because everyone hates “death and taxes”, but because few people believe that the VAT rate will ever be reduced after the 10 year period.
A faster “quick fix” might just be more logically plausible.
The psychology factor
Public psychology also plays a role.
If prices rise over a shorter period of time because of VAT, but the Defence Department is able to show tangible results from the temporary pain, voters are more likely to accept their “suffering.”
What cannot and must not happen is for money to wasted.
Stories among former servicemen and women abound about exercises and incompetent staff. Recent examples of misallocated funds and mismanaged projects - including Israeli reconnaissance drones and new pistols - have soured the public’s view of Swiss military competence.
However an increased defence budge is funded, the money must be put to good and practical use.
And that is no quick job.